WHY THE CANCELLED PHILIPPINE–AMERICAN ARMS DEAL ISN’T A BIG DEAL

 

The local and international media once again sensationalized a minor issue.  This time, the Philippine Star a story about a cancelled arms deal with the United State in its front page.  Worse, the Philippine Daily Inquirer tried to turn the image below into a meme.

“Bato saddened by scuttled arms deal of PNP with US”

Source:  inquirer.net

 

Now, whenever the media talks about guns, knowledgeable persons try not to take them seriously as their ignorance is aptly exemplified by the meme below.

 

 source: www.mojosteve.blogspot.com

Since I think that the media sensationalized a simple issue once again, let us try to make sense of it ourselves.

 

Why the deal cancellation makes no sense

The deal was ostensibly cancelled out of concern for “human rights,” the Philippine Star in the abovementioned report states that:

 

The US State Department halted the planned sale of some 26,000 assault rifles to the Philippines’ national police after Sen. Ben Cardin said he would oppose it, Senate aides told Reuters on Monday.

Aides said Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was reluctant for the United States to provide the weapons given concerns about human rights violations in the Philippines.

The relationship between the United States and the Philippines, a long-time ally, has been complicated lately by President Duterte’s angry reaction to criticism from Washington of his violent battle to rid the country of illegal drugs.

 

We know that this reasoning makes no sense because the United States has previously supplied weapons to regimes which have had questionable human rights track records previously whenever it suits them or whenever it is expedient.  Thus, proceeding from the assumption that Human Rights has absolutely nothing with this, it is safe to say therefore that our relationship was “complicated” not by human rights, but as a result of the country’s realignment or pivot to China as well as “punishment” for continued anti-US rhetoric which has confounded Obama’s own “Pivot to Asia” which many commentators have now declared a failure often citing the Philippines as an example of America’s inability to keep its allies.  This is further implied in a recent article from the Washington Post:

Reuters reported Tuesday that the State Department will stop the weapons sale because of opposition from Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin (Md.), the top Democrat on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a vocal critic of Duterte's "drug war."

Although the State Department did not comment to confirm or deny Reuters's reporting, the head of the Philippine National Police said in a statement that he was “saddened” by the news. Duterte, meanwhile, tried to shrug it off, dismissing the report as a U.S. “scare tactic” and saying the necessary weapons can be purchased somewhere else — like Russia.

Duterte is partly right. Stopping the sale of 26,000 guns is a small gesture, compared with the $9 million in aid that the State Department will give to counternarcotics and law enforcement programs in the Philippines in 2017 and with the $32 million that Secretary of State John F. Kerry pledged this summer for Duterte's law enforcement programs.

But it's a move that is intended to show that some U.S. funding for the Philippines can and will be cut if the president's human rights abuses and anti-U.S. rhetoric continue.

 

So, as the Americans understand it, this isn’t really about human rights, its about anti-US rhetoric.  Keep in mind that the US will have their elections coming up, the current Democrat-dominated government’s inability to keep their alliance with the Philippines has become ammunition by their Republican rivals.  This is retribution, plain and simple.

 

Duterte is not concerned though, he mentioned that if America will not sell us weapons, it is their loss, we will buy from other countries and possibly use locally produced weapons. 

 

M4 Carbines are of an outdated design and is a waste of money

This cancelled deal involves the sale of some 26,000 M4 Carbines.  The M4 Carbine is an updated and shortened version of the original M16 Assault Rifle designed by Eugene Stoner in the 1960s.  Philippine media may have made a big deal out of this because they cling to a belief in the superiority of American firearms, but this is simply not the case.  If you look at the credible militaries all over the world, you will see that very few of them are actually using M-16s or M4 carbines despite their availability.  In the ASEAN region, our neighbors are equipped with

Country	Standard Issue Assault Rifle	Comment
Indonesia	Pindad SS1; Pindad SS2; SAR 21 (special forces)	The SS1 is currently being phased out and will be replaced by the SS2.  Both are locally manufactured.  The SAR 21 is of a bullpup design and is imported from Singapore.  All are chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO
Malaysia	M4 Carbine	Produced under license.  Chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO
Singapore	SAR 21	Bullpup configuration, locally designed and produced.  Chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO
Vietnam	Hodgepodge of Weapons, many Soviet and American leftovers from the war are still in use.  Modern weapons include IWI Tavor TAR-21; Galil ACE	TAR-21 is a bullpup design.  Both the TAR and the Galil are of Israeli origin, the Galil is license built in Vietnam using the old 7.62 x 39 mm round.
Cambodia	Variety of AK-47 and Chinese clones.  QBZ-95 (special forces)	The AK variants are chambered for 7.62 x 39 mm round.  The QBZ-95 is a bullpup design and the variant in use by the Cambodians are chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO.
Thailand	M16A1 (phase out); IWI Tavor TAR-21; SAR 21 (special forces)	The bullpup designed TAR-21 is set to replace the aging M16s in front line service.  These rifles are all chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO.
Brunei	M16A1/A2/A4; SAR 21; Pindad SS2	All are chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO.
Other reference countries
Japan	Howa Type 89	Chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO
India	1B1 INSAS	Locally designed and produced, chambered for 5.56 x 45 mm NATO, standard configuration

 

As the table shows, American assault rifles are, in general, being phased out, and countries tend to be gravitating towards the “bullpup” configuration as exemplified by the TAR-21 and SAR 21.  The M4 carbine is simply a bit old fashioned, it seems bulky and front heavy compared to the SAR, TAR or even Cambodia’s QBZ imports from China.  Worse is that American built M4s are simply not as robust as other models and requires too much maintenance, this was a glaring deficiency discovered as far back as the Vietnam war.  No wonder none of our neighbors are modernizing to these guns.  Are these really the sorts of weapons we want to be equipping our police officers?  They will be fighting house to house, in cramped urban environments, in jungles, they might want a modern bullpup design.  It seems to me that the M4 was only chosen because of our familiarity with the design and because it seems that the US is treating the Philippines is a “captive market” for US arms, we never having had a real opportunity to field test the assault rifles of other nations or to develop our own.  Basically, we should just buy the best weapons for the best price, if that means buying Israeli, Indonesian or Chinese weapons, then so be it!

 

Ammunition compatibility

We may also make a big deal out of a supposed compatibility of existing ammunition with rifles not made by the United States.  This is important because it simplifies logistics and acquisition of weapons and ammunition.  But the mere fact that America refuses to sell us its rifles isn’t as big of a deal as it once was.  During the Cold War, both the West and the Soviet bloc standardized ammunition and magazines to the “NATO Standard,” likewise, the Soviet Bloc adhered to the Warsaw Pact standard.  This means that if two countries belonging to either the NATO or Warsaw standard  Ammunition is fairly standard among

 

Thus assuming we were to find other sources of arms from the Western Bloc, there would be absolutely no compatibility issues using their arms with our existing stockpiles of ammunition and magazines.  This is how we are able to supply Steyr AUG assault rifles to our elite troops with no compatibility issues because the Steyr chambers the same 5.56 x 45 mm NATO round that the M4 does in the same STANAG magazines.

 

Obviously, sourcing weapons from former Soviet Bloc and Chinese countries will cause some issues, but again, the issues are not as difficult to overcome as they may seem.  It is a well known fact that both Russia and the former Soviet republics and China are producing arms for export, that variants of their arms exists that are chambered for the NATO standard.  The government, in dealing with the Chinese or former Soviet bloc countries just has to make sure that they are getting weapons of compatible calibers.

 

A blessing in disguise to the local arms industry?

Duterte has mentioned that the Philippines has its own firearms industry.  This is true, and the fact is, given the situation, we should seriously be looking into the possibility of tapping into our local manufacturers for locally designed and produced weaponry as our Singaporean and Indonesian neighbors are currently doing.

 

Among the pro gun groups in the Philippines, many were quite worried that, in spite of the vibrant gun culture in the Philippines, local arms manufacture would soon cease.  This was because during the time of PNP Chief Alan Purisima, he implemented extremely onerous registration requirements for gun owners.  A firearms owners group, PROGUN has successfully obtained a temporary restraining order against the IRR and has taken the fight to the Senate, but nevertheless, the damage has been done.  Around 2014 – 2015, the ammunition and firearms industry chafed under this regulatory regime and thousands were laid off.  ARMSCOR, a reputable manufacturer based in Marikina City had to lay off 450 workers during this time.

Former PNP Chief Alan Purisima almost destroyed our arms manufacturing industry, for what?  Kickbacks on firearms registration from honest gun owners.

 

Will the current administration help to undo the damage that was done to our industry?  Perhaps it should.  Duterte, a self-avowed Socialist, will readily see that a government infusion of funds into industries wherein we have a competitive advantage, will reap huge dividends.  Government can advance money to possible manufacturers for the for the production of prototypes for the approval of the government.  Once a design is approved and an order is made, Government should advance some money for the construction of factories, hiring of workers and the building of a production line.  The rest of the money can be paid after the delivery of the arms.  All this can be done in 2 to 3 years through proper motivation.  None of this is wishful thinking either.  The Philippines already exports firearms to countries such as the United States and Thailand.  Most of these are sporting rifles and home-defense revolvers, but the innate capacity is already there.

 

In spite of all of his recent bluster, I believe that developing a local armaments industry is something that Former President Fidel Ramos will approve of.  After all, it was during his administration that we embarked on a [stalled] modernization of the AFP and under whom prototypes of helicopters were even produced in the hope they they would enter active service.

 

Note that the cancelled deal was actually a sale that was supposed to take place, this means that funds are actually going to be freed up to fund investments or purchases of arms from other countries, so this isn’t a big loss, and merely represents a delay in the acquisition of new assault rifles.

 

Conclusion

The cancellation of the arms deal is nothing to cry over.  This is probably just America’s way of protesting Duterte’s pivot to China.  Not that this is a big loss, better and cheaper arms can be found elsewhere.  If the United States does not want our money, there are other countries that would love to sell to us.  In the meantime, we should try and take this as an opportunity to depend too much on America, nor should we be beholden to their products, and to develop indigenous capability to produce our own weapons. 

 

 

 

Related:

 Mahindra Trucks:  The PNP Appears Satisfied

On the arms disparity between the Philippines and China

Turning the Bangsamoro region into a politico-military complex

 

 

THE MASSACRE OF THE PNP-SAF AS AN AFFRONT TO OUR SOVEREIGNTY:

AND A SLAP IN THE FACE OF THE “COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF”

The country mourned the loss of “fallen44” brave policemen yesterday, January 30, 2015. Now it must be asked who is to blame and what must be done to give these men justice.

In this post I seek to explain my anger and disgust at the death of 44 elite policemen, the willingness of some sectors to continue with the peace process and why I favor “all-out war” with the MILF. I will then go on to criticize the President for his incompetence and subsequent lack of empathy and inability to take responsibility for his actions.

The Botched “Oplan Wolverine”

Oplan Wolverine was the code name for the operation to “serve a warrant of arrest” for Zulkifli bin Hir aka. “Marwan”, a wanted Jeemah Islamiyah terrorist, infamous for the Bali Bombings. His infamy made some to regard him as “Asia’s Osama Bin Laden”.

Oplan Wolverine was meant to be a covert insertion. It was so secret that the operatives allegedly reported only to the President. The mission draws inspiration from Operation Neptune Spear, the covert operation which resulted in the death of Osama Bin Laden. Thus, like Neptune Spear, Wolverine never contacted the “government” in whose territory the operatives were inserted into.

So far, the most reliable version of events that I could find is narrated in the Inquirer story, SAF chief: I am responsible. It reads:

The 392 police commandos were divided into groups were positioned as early as 3 a.m. on Sunday. The plan, according to Napeñas, was for a surgical operation of only 30 minutes. Four nipa huts in the village were the targets of the assault.

At 4:20 a.m., part of the assault force was able to enter the nipa hut where Marwan was sleeping, Napeñas said.

“Marwan woke up, that was around 4:30 a.m., and he managed to be the first to shoot, that’s why some of us were hit. But we returned fire and killed him outright,” he said.

The exchange of gunfire brought Marwan’s security to action. As the policemen were about to pull out, they came under fire from all directions, Napeñas said.

When the firing became intense, one SAF officer extracted DNA from Marwan, Napeñas said. Then the assault team decided it was best to bring Marwan’s body and shoot its way out of there, he said.

The team got out, said Napeñas, who described the other side as BIFF and MILF forces who “came from all directions.”

At past 6 a.m., the joint monitoring team from the MILF and the government called a ceasefire, Napeñas said, but the “MILF did not stop shooting.”

This version of events appears to be the one that is most commonly accepted as of this writing.

An assessment of of this operation would have to recognize that it was partially successful in terms of accomplishing its objectives. Marwan was killed in the encounter--never to make another bomb again. Unfortunately, the SAF’s secondary objective, Usman may have given them the slip. In the end, it the lack of coordination of leadership with the ground command directly led to the bloodbath.

Mamasapano as a Massacre

Our Special Police Force doesn’t die just like that. Manila Times columnist Mr. Tiglao makes a good argument when he claims that the police surrendered or tried to surrender, but then they were killed just like dogs!

Shot Like Dogs

(Source: Manila Times)

It is simply outrageous that those responsible should not be brought to justice on the pretext that it was a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

The killing looks deliberate, sudden. Otherwise, the SAF would have struggled and fought for their lives. At the very least, this would demonstrate a lack of control of the MILF leadership over their men and the inability to abide by the basic tenets of human decency, which all men with moral fiber, regardless of faith, will know about.

It bears pointing out that these SAF are technically NOT MILITARY forces, subject of ceasefire, these were policemen--CIVILIAN authorities, mercilessly gunned down. Another point is that as policemen, they have every right to be where they were that morning. In my book, that makes their killers nothing more but criminals, thugs and cop-killers.

A Short History Lesson

The Philippines has lived with a conflict in Mindanao for almost the whole of its history. Many say it stems from the land-grabbing of the Christian settlers in most parts of Mindanao, which deprived many Indigenous Peoples (IPs) and Muslim communities without land which was rightfully theirs.

In the 1960s, during the early days of the Marcos Era, the Philippines still had a reputable military. This was also the period of Konfrontasi, a bloody conflict between Malaysia and Indonesia over some territory in Borneo. At the time, the Philippines chose to ally itself with Indonesia. In exchange, the Indonesians would support Philippine claims in Sabah. Now, this botched invasion of Malaysia, is lost to history and is little known.

A Philippine invasion of Malaysia, ultimately never materialized. The reason may be in part because some of the Muslim shock troops that were being trained for the invasion learned that they would be sent to fight their Muslim brothers in Malaysia and thus mutinied. This mutiny led to the Jabidah Massacre on March 18, 1968, wherein between 11 - 200 Muslim recruits were said to have died on Corregidor when Philippine troops fired upon the unarmed trainees.

This massacre was often thought to be some urban legend, but apparently, part of its mystery is partly because the Government has never chosen to acknowledge the incident. It was only in 2013 when President Aquino chose to acknowledge the massacre for the first time in this country’s history.

You may ask why is this important? Because this only reveals just how consistent the stand of President Aquino is on the matter of the Bangsamoro. In choosing to acknowledge the Jabidah massacre, the massacre of the forces meant to invade Sabah, Aquino seems to put all Philippine claims on the territory behind us.

It also seems that President Aquino is hell bent on making this Bangsamoro arrangement of his work out. Sad to say, he won't be making any of the “hard choices” anytime soon.

Why Am I Outraged

If it was the PNP leadership and the President who is to blame for this massacre, then shouldn’t my outrage be directed towards them and not the Bangsamoro and the Peace Process? In a way that is correct, the PNP Leadership and the President should answer for this. The bungling leadership has no one else to blame but themselves for their deaths--it was a ceasefire they created, and “succeeded” the territory where they died to a rebel group and gave them sovereignty.

But the MILF is probably even more to blame for this: First, there was supposedly a ceasefire. Second, this was still Filipino territory, we have not given it to them yet.

Granted, we may argue that it was the BIFF that caused the slaughter, but it clearly shows either, the MILF cannot demonstrate that they control the territory supposedly given to them, or that they are allied to the BIFF and sanctioned this massacre.

Therefore, two things are clear to me: First is that our leadership is to blame for sending those policemen there without proper support, and second, the MILF/BIFF are to blame for not assessing the situation and committing the massacre [in cold blood].

What must be done

There must be retaliation from the government forces. The present administration is treating the MILF with kid’s gloves, giving in to demands from known terrorists. We must negotiate from a position of power: wipe-out several camps and decapitate its leadership--leave them powerless.

We must send them a message that one does not mess with the civilian authority of the Philippines. The deaths of the fallen44 and the way that government is trying to portray the massacre as a “mis-encounter” will only embolden the MILF into even greater atrocities.

I admit that war is a very difficult decision to make. Erap’s “all-out war” in 2000 left us with more than 200 dead soldiers. A war now will likely lead to even more, given the incompetent leadership. War will also be a great economic burden (though I suspect any unwillingness to spend for war will likely be due to the fact that politicians stand to lose a portion of taxpayers money which would otherwise find its way into their pockets).

Simply put, the MILF are taking us for fools. Fact of the matter is, I have a very low opinion of them. They are a bunch of “cop-killers”. The legitimacy of their cause is forever stained by the blood of those policemen.

So war is absolutely necessary from a political standpoint--to show the MILF (and possibly China, who is watching, that our government is not to be pushed around. Another reason is that, the culprits of the massacre are among the ranks of the MILF and the BIFF. Given the small chance that the culprits would be turned over, the best thing to do is to go in and cripple their forces, and force them to sue for peace and justice--force them to turn over Usman whom they are likely sheltering.

The Bangsamoro agreement must also be scrapped because not only is it unconstitutional, it is tantamount to giving a portion of the country over to the control of a bunch of terrorists and cop-killers.

At the end of this all, the Commander-in-Chief, President Aquino and the leadership under him, must himself be held accountable for the lack of coordination for this operation. After his term, inquiries should be held for this purpose and to determine Aquino’s liability for his gross negligence.

A more Moderate Approach

At the very least, if the Government is totally unwilling to wage war against these bandit-insurgents, they must at least mass some forces into the area. It seems that the MILF/BIFF are ahead of us at that one too as MILF and BIFF forces are massing in the area where the massacre occurred. A similar massing by government forces will ensure their good behavior for the duration of the ceasefire.

Another thing that we should at least, as suggested by some former Generals is to first, demand the surrender of the perpetrators of this massacre and second, to recover the firearms and equipment looted from their bodies. The first is to send a message as to who is the sovereign power in these parts of the country and will indeed show sincerity from the MILF and BIFF of their regret over the incident.

Some Unanswered Questions

And how could the nearby Army not come to the aid of the stricken police? This is totally baffling. Our ground commanders are known for their initiative and resolve--remember how our expeditionary forces escaped the ISIS encirclement, against their orders?

So how could they not respond to the call of the police for help? Because it would break the ceasefire? Remember that the PNP is a civilian force, first and foremost, don’t let their assault rifles, special training and equipment fool you--they were a bunch of civilians. The civilians are whom our military was sworn to protect.

That is why we must treat this as one of the country’s worst Military Failure/Defeat, as much as it was a massacre of civilians.

Police leadership should also learn from this disaster. One positive step is by exonerating the deputy PNP chief. Now, since the Police Deputy Director General Marcelo Garbo was purposely kept out of the loop regarding this operation, why the was he relieved?--it clearly wasn't his fault. The idiots are clearly aware of their blunder and they are now looking for a scapegoat.

Conclusion

This massacre was the greatest loss of life the PNP has ever experience in an operation in its history. A lot of these men went in never expecting to be fired upon during a ceasefire and left to be abandoned by nearby Military forces. Justice must definitely be served. It must be served upon the one who sent them to their deaths and must also be served upon their killers.

The fallen44 have shown us who we are dealing with: a merciless group of thugs who harbor terrorists. These are the people whose demands we are about to give into. Yes, peace in Mindanao must be achieved, but it should be done by first eradicating these terrorists from the region. Power does not belong to them and the region is not theirs by right nor are they the sovereign will of the people living there.

Related posts:

PNP QUESTIONED OVER AWARD FOR PATROL JEEPS TO MAHINDRA